The Paris Accord and The Way Forward

By Arundhati Joshi

We just witnessed the five year anniversary of the monumental 2015 Paris accords. The agreement put the plans into action to fight global warming and climate change, which had been in the pipeline since the 1990’s. The aim was simple. All parties to the agreement were to commit and demonstrate immediate reductions in emissions. This was viewed as the stepping stone to prevent the global temperature from increasing by 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. A failure to do so would lead to exhaustion of natural resources and an almost uninhabitable planet for the future generations. The 196 countries who signed the agreement after decades of being informed by climate scientists of the problem knew the importance of this document.

Now, it is five years into the agreement in the year 2020. We have seen mass climate movements helmed by young people like Greta Thunberg who are imploring decision makers around the world to take the climate crisis seriously. In the wake of a debilitating pandemic that was warned decades before just like climate change, one thing is clear; we need to listen to science. So has the Paris accord done justice to the problem that it currently faces? The answer is both in the affirmative and negative.

Scenario Before the Paris Accord

Before the Paris accords, global emissions could have pushed temperature up by 3.5 degree by 2100. According to estimates by Climate Action Tracker, a non-profit consortium now puts that trajectory within a 66% chance after the Paris Accords of keeping it within 2.9 degree Celsius. Some scientists even go on to say that even if all promises of 2015 are kept, global temperatures would rise by 2.6 degree Celsius by the end of the century. While the Paris accords are driving the conversation and action on climate change the countries aren’t really living up to the promises they made in 2015. This is evident in the use of coal, oil and natural gases that fuel global warming not dropping despite availability of cheaper renewable energy. As per the driving factor of keeping temperatures from increasing to below 2 degrees Celsius, countries need to weave off fossils fuels drastically. This goes for usage in energy and transportation and an emphasis on halting the loss of forests, overhauling food production, and finding ways to suck off greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. The main point is to implore countries to convert their promises into actions.

The agreement can act as a barrier against climate change only for a short period of time unless sustainable practices are adopted. The countries need to stiffen their carbon emissions reductions since small vulnerable island nations depend on the commitment of emissions below 1.5 degree Celsius for their survival. According to the MCC Carbon Clock that tracks carbon emissions the world has 7 years before it has exhausted its budget of carbon to keep the temperature below 1.5 degree Celsius. Therefore we need to act fast, a demand that young people of the world have been making quite correctly.

The UK, France and the United Nations were responsible for hosting the 5 year anniversary summit of the Paris accords. The summit was designed for countries to ramp up their “nationally determined contributions” (NDC’s) and make good on past commitments. China, who is the second highest carbon polluter, surprisingly announced its decision to become carbon neutral by 2060. The United States under the Trump administration had pulled out of the Paris accords in 2019 which the Biden administration has joined again earning praise from countries and organizations across the world to fight climate change.

Covid-19 and The Paris Accord

With Covid-19 engulfing the whole world, economies have faced the biggest brunt. Although it has resulted in a lot of loss we have been given the opportunity to make our economy recover as green as possible for sake of a sustainable planet. We need a strong focus on changes in economy generation for systemic change. And while the world was shut down we faced an uncomfortable truth. Even with emissions falling by 7% this year compared to 2019 levels they will bounce back again next year and the lockdowns didn’t dent the majority of harmful emissions. This calls for financing R&D on clean energy for sustaining the environment.

The Way Forward

An important step is to support natural solutions like carbon trading with some restrictions and stopping the destruction of the world’s carbon sinks and forests. We need to move fast and drastically work to stop the rise in global temperatures, the effects of which can be clearly seen in destructive wildfires, hurricanes and heat waves. Large polluters from the previous century need to take up the extra responsibility and guide smaller developing nations to net zero carbon emissions. Non state actors are equally important in the fight if we are to leave a liveable planet for the future generation.