What did Myanmar Vote For?
By Meemansa Narula
A sneak peek into democratic and electoral ideals of Myanmar and what does it mean for the world.
Myanmar has a long history of tension in their politics and elections. Myanmar gained independence in 1948 with the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) coming into power and U Nu became the Prime Minister. Later, the party split and a government led by the Army Chief of Staff General Ne Win was instituted from 1958–60. In 1960, U Nu’s party faction won the general elections and promoted Buddhism as the state religion.
In 1962, General Ne’s Win replaced AFPFL- government, headed by U Nu with the Union Revolutionary Council from 1962–2011 under oppressive military rule. However, NLD had won the 1990 elections with an overwhelming majority, it was not permitted to assume power. NLD chose to boycott the polls in 2010. And the military-backed USDP won more than 75% of seats.
Gradually elections brought an end to military rule and in 2015 NLD came to power. However, 25% of the total of 664 seats were reserved for the army. Rohingyas with temporary identity cards were disenfranchised. Also, the NLD did not include any Muslim in their Central Executive Committee nor did they field any Muslim candidates.
In 2017, more than half a million Rohingyas fled to neighbouring Bangladesh following the genocide. And this deteriorated Aung San Suu Kyi’s image as an icon of human rights when she defended the army.
However, in 2020, Myanmar’s ruling party NLD claimed a resounding victory on Monday, the 9th of November in the second parliamentary election since the end of oppressive military rule, according to its unofficial tally of votes. Sunday’s election was viewed as a referendum on the fledgeling democratic government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide in 2015.
Key Takeaways from this election:
- Hopes in leadership of Suu Kyi :- Many people had hoped from Suu Kyi that she would act more democratically and will bring in some good reforms — where the citizens could criticize their leaders without any fear. However, the tables seem to have turned, with the events and crisis of the past 5 years.
- Lack of strong Opposition :-An Independent election watchdog, ‘People’s Alliance for Credible Elections’ conducted a survey and found out that almost 79% of people had trust in Suu Kyi. The country has been lacking an effective opposition even after a whopping 91 parties who have been contesting elections. The USDP, which is the main opposition party, is still in the past and has not been able to adapt to the present.
- Role of social media giants :- Social Media giants like Facebook have become an important part of democratic processes across the world. With half of Myanmar’s 53 million population, having access to facebook there were eyes on the giant, on how it restricts the spread of fake news. Facebook officials shared with Reuters that hate speech was at its ‘historic low’. However, civil society groups reported of numerous groups and pages running ethically and religiously charged falsehoods. Some pages were later flagged down, when brought into notice.
- Was the election flawed? :- Suu Kyi being the advocate of human rights and democracy has not focused on the Rohingya muslims and other ethnic minorities. Not everyone could vote/stand in this election as voting was cancelled in conflict riddled Rakhine and Shan states disenfranchising almost 1.5 million people, according to Human Rights Watch. Besides this, the ruling party restricted access of media to other parties, which raised questions about how fair the process is. The ruling party was free to promote itself while stopping other parties from campaigning. There was a problem of censorship during the campaigning too, where 4 parties cancelled their broadcasts because they were not allowed to criticise or even make basic arguments against NLD.
- Covid Elections :- Due to increase in covid cases, as there was a recent surge from 100 cases per day to a daily peak of 2,000 cases daily on October 10. Though opposition parties tried to postpone the 8th November poll, Suu Kyi resisted those calls and told them that precautions would be in place.
- Lack of interest of voters :- According to the survey by the People’s Alliance for Credible Elections (PACE), only 30 percent of respondents were interested in politics and there was a major decline from 58 per cent in 2016.
What does a democratic Myanmar mean to the hegemon of the world?
Election of Aung San Suu Kyi has been a particular blow to the US. It had heavily sanctioned the previous military regime. As per the US, a democratic Myanmar would become a natural U.S ally in Southeast Asia and China to reap the benefits of the Autocracy. However, the Trump administration did not work on Myanmar’s Backsliding while Joe Biden has pledged to revive U.S support for democracy around the world and he even said that applying policy to Myanmar would be a priority.
Why should Myanmar matter to India?
India’s “Neighborhood First” policy and “Act East” policy are major contributors to the continuing relationship with Myanmar. This is a conducive atmosphere for the governments of India and Myanmar to make efforts by making India-Myanmar relations profoundly significant in each other’s foreign policy. While Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia, India is Myanmar’s gateway to South Asia.
Rohingya Issue: Though India has come forward to ensure safe returning of the Rohingya Community from Bangladesh, this issue is very controversial as they were not even allowed to vote in their state, let alone Stand for the elections.
Health and Pandemic: India’s Medical or Drug Diplomacy played a major role in building a relationship with Myanmar and a package of 3000 vials of the antiviral Remdesivir is given to assist Myanmar in its fight with pandemic And has shown willingness to prioritise Myanmar when covid vaccines will be available.
Infrastructure and Connectivity: Operationalisation of the crucial Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state by March 2021 is committed.
The way forward for Myanmar
The big win for Suu Kyi is surely a welcome boost, who struggled to meet the high public expectations in the first term. This term will be very much challenging for her. However, Suu Kyi promises a corruption-free government to the voters, but it is a bit uncertain too because of the bribing allegations on her party during elections. She is tasked with developing a country which suffered decades of decay. And because of ethnic division, disenfranchisement of Rohingya, international patience for Myanmar’s democratic transition has all run out.
Meemansa Narula is the Research Lead at The PolicyFide. She is a graduate in Political Sciences, and shares interest in the areas of education, human rights and gender.